Opinion: Forcing elections in Ukraine would be dangerous

OPINION. A lasting and just peace in Ukraine requires a clear and principled sequence of actions. A ceasefire must come first, followed by a sustainable peace agreement. Only then can free, fair, and legitimate elections take place, writes Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary General of International IDEA.

The opinions expressed in this article are those by the author.

The past few days have been a turning point in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s call with Vladimir Putin, diplomatic efforts to put an end to the war have gained speed. The broad contours of those efforts, as publicly reported, are deeply problematic on grounds of process and substance. One of the most troubling aspects of the ongoing discussion concerns the accusation leveled against Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of lacking democratic legitimacy and the corresponding pressure exerted on the Ukrainian authorities to hold elections as soon as possible. This pressure is unwise and must be rejected.

Anybody who cares about human suffering should welcome diplomatic efforts aimed at securing peace in Ukraine. However, peace must be rooted in justice, sovereignty, and international law—not imposed through ultimatums or political expediency. At a minimum, any settlement must uphold the core principles of the UN Charter. Russia’s aggression, ongoing since 2014, is a blatant violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the right of its people to self-determination. These principles are the cornerstone of the international order and, thus, non-negotiable.

Only Ukraine can decide

Diplomatic efforts must recognize that the decision to hold elections in Ukraine belongs to Ukraine alone. According to Ukrainian law, elections can only take place after martial law is lifted. In this Ukraine is no different from many democratic countries that in the past were forced to postpone elections under exceptional circumstances, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ukraine’s democratic processes are fully in line with international practices and norms. There is no legitimate reason for an external actor to dictate the way in which they are to be timed or managed.

A lasting and just peace in Ukraine requires a clear and principled sequence of actions. A ceasefire must come first, followed by a sustainable peace agreement. Only then can free, fair, and legitimate elections take place. Any attempt to reverse this order, forcing elections before peace is secured, would be reckless and dangerous.

Even after hostilities cease, organizing elections in Ukraine poses enormous challenges. Millions of Ukrainians have been forcibly displaced, both within their country and abroad, due to Russia’s aggression. Even as basic a requirement for a credible election as having a reliable electoral roll becomes a tall order in a country at war, where the whereabouts of many voters are unknown, and where security threats –both physical and digital—are pervasive.

Ensuring the Ukrainians’ right to vote in a free and fair manner will require amending electoral laws, careful planning, and immense international support. As in other post-conflict situations, for elections to be successful, Ukraine will need logistical, technological, and political assistance from the rest of the world. International help will be needed to rebuild electoral infrastructure, provide security, and support displaced voters in exercising their democratic rights.

Since 2023, International IDEA has worked closely with Ukraine’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) to help it prepare for a post-war election. We have done this alongside many international partners, who share our sense of responsibility to help Ukrainian democratic institutions withstand the current onslaught and thrive into the future. The US government’s abrupt decision to suspend USAID-funded projects has severely impinged on the ability of many of these partners to continue providing critical support to the CEC. Ukraine’s electoral authorities thus suddenly find themselves in an impossible situation in which some of the same actors that are ramping up the pressure to organize elections immediately are, at the same time, withdrawing the financial and technical support required to do so.

It is vital to understand that a rushed or ill-prepared election could have catastrophic consequences for peace, for democracy, and for Ukraine. It could jeopardize the legitimacy of the result, fuel internal and external tensions, and provide abundant propaganda ammunition to the enemies of democracy—the very same forces that have waged war against Ukraine in the first place.

A democracy under attack

Ukraine is a democracy under attack. According to International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy indicators, Ukraine’s democracy had made significant strides in the years prior to the full-scale Russian invasion. For the past three years, the Ukrainian people have fought not just for their right to live in an independent country, but also for their right to live under a democratic system. A just peace must ensure that Ukraine remains a sovereign, democratic state where its people—not foreign powers—decide their future through free and fair elections.

Supporting these legitimate goals is not and should not be seen as a European or Western concern only. Developing countries have every right to decry hypocrisy and double standards in the current international order. But nearly all of them also have every reason to fear an international jungle in which big powers openly decide other countries’ fate, where, as per Thucydides, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

Democracy and self-determination must not become casualties of war. There can be no free elections without security. There can be no democracy without sovereignty. There can be no lasting peace without justice. One can only hope that at this decisive hour, the world will stand firm in defense of these principles and ensure that Ukraine emerges from this war stronger, sovereign, and democratic.

Kevin Casas-Zamora
Secretary General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA); former Vice President of Costa Rica.

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